{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f534324-2808-4871-8301-d06dad93f5f1", "symbol": "OIS", "name": "Oil States International Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 86.383, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.338, "architecture_energy": 34.966, "architecture_maturity": 48.63, "architecture_confidence": 87.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.28, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 22.01, "deceleration": 40.85, "rotation_down": 37.57, "downward_expansion": 63.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.289333, 8.229636, 8.587667, 9.196086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.14, "trend_reference": 9.669, "distance_from_trend": -0.158134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.427564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.51738, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105495, "excess_performance": -0.231119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266421, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.370997, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3596826, "relative_activity": 0.931652, "balance": 1.370997, "dry_up": 0.842341, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092355, "annualized_volatility": 0.654202, "from_high_reference": -0.438621, "from_low_reference": 0.666325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.669, "fair_value_reference": 6.427564, "structural_low": 7.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.043028, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.006763, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.461749, "worst_return": -0.315888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.139216, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.19106, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.512535, "worst_return": -0.294702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091046, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.051708, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.641176, "worst_return": -0.385281, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.256196, "energy": 50.344431, "activity_lines": [ 8.182667, 8.226909, 8.961286, 9.450581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.67, "volume": 2971988, "typical_volume": 4091973.05, "trend": 9.631, "fair_value": 6.423846, "relative_strength": -0.49607, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.212038, "energy": 37.440796, "activity_lines": [ 8.372, 8.285273, 8.854048, 9.392645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.11, "volume": 3806755, "typical_volume": 3949664.05, "trend": 9.665667, "fair_value": 6.425705, "relative_strength": -8.368729, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.341021, "energy": 32.650728, "activity_lines": [ 8.326667, 8.248, 8.710429, 9.294516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.14, "volume": 3596826, "typical_volume": 3860695.6, "trend": 9.669, "fair_value": 6.427564, "relative_strength": -11.51738, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.338196, "energy": 34.966479, "activity_lines": [ 8.289333, 8.229636, 8.587667, 9.196086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }