{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f540cd1-5e93-478b-9898-fb1c5c3cd26c", "symbol": "8040", "name": "Mutakamela Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.713, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.651, "architecture_energy": 64.953, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.17, "rotation_up": 74.76, "upward_expansion": 85.02, "deceleration": 55.99, "rotation_down": 9.55, "downward_expansion": 11.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.926, 12.271636, 10.96119, 10.447699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.9, "trend_reference": 10.099667, "distance_from_trend": 0.27727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.931731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136068, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.317346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.238004, "excess_performance": 0.269833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.27727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020369, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.278403, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.153173, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.426035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.238004, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.624571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2991165, "relative_activity": 1.999389, "balance": 2.624571, "dry_up": 2.149984, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093202, "annualized_volatility": 0.562873, "from_high_reference": -0.135968, "from_low_reference": 0.573171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.099667, "fair_value_reference": 14.931731, "structural_low": 8.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015975, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.003161, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.127819, "worst_return": -0.206667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032623, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013851, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.134511, "worst_return": -0.091111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017002, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.267663, "worst_return": -0.236868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.088679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00806, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.45788, "worst_return": -0.280522, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073252, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002436, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.379712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047929, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 409730, "typical_volume": 305494.6, "trend": 15.570667, "fair_value": 20.813526, "relative_strength": 10.366419, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.860397, "energy": 86.997335, "activity_lines": [ 12.516, 11.082, 10.114333, 9.912731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.07, "volume": 4445085, "typical_volume": 1279882.35, "trend": 10.000333, "fair_value": 14.994231, "relative_strength": 16.664077, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.481536, "energy": 88.762085, "activity_lines": [ 13.012, 11.611818, 10.444571, 10.114151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.31, "volume": 1628753, "typical_volume": 1350847.35, "trend": 10.039667, "fair_value": 14.961859, "relative_strength": 12.370433, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.638209, "energy": 87.183198, "activity_lines": [ 12.979333, 11.922182, 10.683143, 10.263161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.9, "volume": 2991165, "typical_volume": 1496039.4, "trend": 10.099667, "fair_value": 14.931731, "relative_strength": 15.317346, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.651014, "energy": 64.95315, "activity_lines": [ 12.926, 12.271636, 10.96119, 10.447699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }