{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f58b094-e1e5-4804-8d60-73b4bfa37191", "symbol": "QTRX", "name": "Quanterix Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.709, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.654, "architecture_energy": 10.352, "architecture_maturity": 25.607, "architecture_confidence": 43.278, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.91, "rotation_up": 24.91, "upward_expansion": 21.69, "deceleration": 57.99, "rotation_down": 28.09, "downward_expansion": 53.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.779333, 3.816636, 3.581857, 3.756559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.03, "trend_reference": 4.267333, "distance_from_trend": -0.055616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.659519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.65436, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.925367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.338259, "excess_performance": -0.525713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.65436, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132463, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338259, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1914251, "relative_activity": 0.385555, "balance": 1.111576, "dry_up": 0.475598, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157282, "annualized_volatility": 0.798679, "from_high_reference": -0.540479, "from_low_reference": 0.682672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.267333, "fair_value_reference": 11.659519, "structural_low": 2.395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.011274, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.019578, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.544534, "worst_return": -0.346335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.09417, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.238299, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.924686, "worst_return": -0.520906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.19127, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.376224, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.521674, "worst_return": -0.650331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.462688, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.566678, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.896861, "worst_return": -0.678194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.136889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292715, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.335238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.224109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258799, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.287234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.241525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.14248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.51, "volume": 1613410, "typical_volume": 1752690.4, "trend": 17.639667, "fair_value": 33.680641, "relative_strength": 44.88127, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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-27.573392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.506097, "energy": 17.331179, "activity_lines": [ 3.906667, 3.530182, 3.520571, 4.018495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.88, "volume": 2232599, "typical_volume": 5187838.7, "trend": 4.683833, "fair_value": 12.177949, "relative_strength": -35.468452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.275712, "energy": 21.982426, "activity_lines": [ 3.970667, 3.632636, 3.523214, 3.95872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.865, "volume": 3063709, "typical_volume": 5137326.65, "trend": 4.593, "fair_value": 12.044712, "relative_strength": -32.292386, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.152504, "energy": 21.426034, "activity_lines": [ 3.991, 3.723636, 3.533381, 3.905892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.67, "volume": 2407332, "typical_volume": 5040276.1, "trend": 4.5, "fair_value": 11.918622, "relative_strength": -33.890635, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.484036, "energy": 14.375891, "activity_lines": [ 3.895333, 3.760273, 3.537762, 3.846344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.48, "volume": 2059956, "typical_volume": 5009741.8, "trend": 4.401667, "fair_value": 11.794263, "relative_strength": -36.823097, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.575932, "energy": 15.03357, "activity_lines": [ 3.717667, 3.745636, 3.530667, 3.780538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.03, "volume": 1914251, "typical_volume": 4964927.75, "trend": 4.267333, "fair_value": 11.659519, "relative_strength": -29.925367, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.653735, "energy": 10.352027, "activity_lines": [ 3.779333, 3.816636, 3.581857, 3.756559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }