{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f67bcf8-7fec-45c6-baff-491fc16d6aeb", "symbol": "REUSE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Circular Economy Leaders UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.501, "architecture_energy": 56.97, "architecture_maturity": 63.2, "architecture_confidence": 54.627, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.09, "rotation_up": 45.24, "upward_expansion": 73.83, "deceleration": 74.2, "rotation_down": 29.53, "downward_expansion": 14.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.8731, 22.8606, 22.550389, 22.153958 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.4009, "trend_reference": 21.717777, "distance_from_trend": 0.0775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.252231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.294153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101774, "excess_performance": 0.048462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057195, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042942, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101774, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.129719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15669, "relative_activity": 0.518662, "balance": 1.129719, "dry_up": 0.880018, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017353, "annualized_volatility": 0.118721, "from_high_reference": -0.001877, "from_low_reference": 0.233002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.717777, "fair_value_reference": 19.252231, "structural_low": 19.5779, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037155, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.010221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069025, "worst_return": -0.034725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061908, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152805, "worst_return": -0.030199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.050696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037315, "worst_return": 0.020718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 22.923401, "volume": 36706, "typical_volume": 34943.0, "trend": 21.41311, "fair_value": 19.096771, "relative_strength": 7.538588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.55363, "energy": 84.255173, "activity_lines": [ 22.96586, 22.766576, 22.171692, 21.830789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.6008, "volume": 54231, "typical_volume": 36563.7, "trend": 21.49017, "fair_value": 19.133811, "relative_strength": 5.797086, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.966755, "energy": 63.311455, "activity_lines": [ 22.855294, 22.776945, 22.259747, 21.907414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.504999, "volume": 9913, "typical_volume": 35468.55, "trend": 21.566363, "fair_value": 19.169226, "relative_strength": 4.730861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.264676, "energy": 52.909091, "activity_lines": [ 22.7222, 22.753727, 22.333605, 21.972887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.613001, "volume": 26530, "typical_volume": 33886.05, "trend": 21.640933, "fair_value": 19.207388, "relative_strength": 3.388871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.782631, "energy": 41.290141, "activity_lines": [ 22.653574, 22.738249, 22.409047, 22.040412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.4009, "volume": 15669, "typical_volume": 30210.45, "trend": 21.717777, "fair_value": 19.252231, "relative_strength": 4.294153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.501101, "energy": 56.970429, "activity_lines": [ 22.8731, 22.8606, 22.550389, 22.153958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }