{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f69c9f8-70f6-433b-85a4-9ce54e7c028a", "symbol": "EWD", "name": "iShares MSCI Sweden ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.403, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.912, "architecture_energy": 32.079, "architecture_maturity": 17.525, "architecture_confidence": 66.093, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.12, "rotation_up": 13.78, "upward_expansion": 13.34, "deceleration": 50.07, "rotation_down": 57.5, "downward_expansion": 65.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 885.527332, 889.172124, 887.076306, 891.232919 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 888.0, "trend_reference": 896.685645, "distance_from_trend": -0.009686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 781.709605, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.695804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029572, "excess_performance": 0.025095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070499, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029572, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.000466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.000466, "dry_up": 4.975818, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013106, "annualized_volatility": 0.18144, "from_high_reference": -0.048262, "from_low_reference": 0.052292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 896.685645, "fair_value_reference": 781.709605, "structural_low": 848.690186, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009609, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.059657, "worst_return": -0.055863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013347, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02924, "worst_return": -0.193815, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.059027, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.181504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104813, "worst_return": -0.222866, "sufficient": 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advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.262314, "energy": 15.912951, "activity_lines": [ 893.273315, 891.469755, 888.880439, 893.606485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 878.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8393.45, "trend": 896.818978, "fair_value": 777.854416, "relative_strength": -2.383418, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.965207, "energy": 30.213526, "activity_lines": [ 887.163989, 889.928265, 887.397966, 892.366551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 888.0, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 8394.75, "trend": 896.752311, "fair_value": 779.78201, "relative_strength": -1.870429, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.641663, "energy": 32.30269, "activity_lines": [ 885.915328, 889.67205, 887.129922, 891.797585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 888.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8394.75, "trend": 896.685645, "fair_value": 781.709605, "relative_strength": -1.695804, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.911948, "energy": 32.079397, "activity_lines": [ 885.527332, 889.172124, 887.076306, 891.232919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }