{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8f6f7357-f69a-4ee2-b0c5-56e24ee9e204",
    "symbol": "ALR",
    "name": "Altair Minerals Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 50.186,
    "architecture_energy": 31.931,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.927,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.878,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.0,
        "rotation_up": 56.43,
        "upward_expansion": 64.87,
        "deceleration": 60.92,
        "rotation_down": 14.83,
        "downward_expansion": 12.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.035267,
        0.033327,
        0.034557,
        0.033243
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.039,
    "trend_reference": 0.030967,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.259419,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.010663,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 2.657349,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 42.9625,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.56,
    "excess_performance": 0.496294,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.259419,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.109916,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.657349,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.634959,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.429625,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.943227,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.56,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.383293,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 56781945,
      "relative_activity": 1.124438,
      "balance": 1.383293,
      "dry_up": 0.639854,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.128205,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.809547,
      "from_high_reference": -0.290909,
      "from_low_reference": 3.333333
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.030967,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.010663,
      "structural_low": 0.017,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.020833,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043295,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.8,
        "worst_return": -0.090909,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.26,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.261929,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.72,
        "worst_return": -0.2,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.08,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.069243,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.56,
        "worst_return": -0.4,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.2,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.257936,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.2,
        "worst_return": -0.2,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-06-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.3,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-06-16",
        "end": "2024-01-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.166667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-03-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.2,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.333333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.25,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.333333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 3.8,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.64,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.170732,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.181818,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 52233447.05,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 50461305.05,
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        "fair_value": 0.010228,
        "relative_strength": 29.568832,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.037,
        "volume": 46756241,
        "typical_volume": 50816584.35,
        "trend": 0.0305,
        "fair_value": 0.010439,
        "relative_strength": 42.940305,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.148565,
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        "activity_lines": [
          0.033067,
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          0.034043,
          0.032695
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.039,
        "volume": 56781945,
        "typical_volume": 50498047.15,
        "trend": 0.030967,
        "fair_value": 0.010663,
        "relative_strength": 42.9625,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.185933,
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        "activity_lines": [
          0.035267,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}