{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f731e5e-964f-4d38-8510-c4001f08f8a9", "symbol": "AENT", "name": "Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation Class A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.208, "architecture_energy": 28.089, "architecture_maturity": 34.811, "architecture_confidence": 89.455, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.3, "rotation_up": 22.55, "upward_expansion": 2.84, "deceleration": 52.42, "rotation_down": 39.49, "downward_expansion": 71.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.682667, 5.706545, 5.964619, 6.137591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.66, "trend_reference": 6.350833, "distance_from_trend": -0.108778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.116371, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374997, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.442602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187948, "excess_performance": -0.375402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392799, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77554, "relative_activity": 0.747324, "balance": 0.392799, "dry_up": 0.704175, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15418, "annualized_volatility": 0.657631, "from_high_reference": -0.356818, "from_low_reference": 0.298165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.350833, "fair_value_reference": 4.116371, "structural_low": 4.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.043752, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.049502, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.785942, "worst_return": -0.442211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.171285, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.290389, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.835237, "worst_return": -0.455882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068627, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.275672, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.967374, "worst_return": -0.486146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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4.022749, "relative_strength": -19.739771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.431148, "energy": 31.794891, "activity_lines": [ 5.795667, 5.811273, 6.229286, 6.353763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.78, "volume": 84804, "typical_volume": 125833.85, "trend": 6.562667, "fair_value": 4.045922, "relative_strength": -19.20753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.161247, "energy": 22.288137, "activity_lines": [ 5.834, 5.773, 6.16869, 6.298882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.91, "volume": 26075, "typical_volume": 111162.6, "trend": 6.502, "fair_value": 4.071884, "relative_strength": -15.840914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.949471, "energy": 18.888811, "activity_lines": [ 5.887333, 5.782182, 6.118714, 6.256774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.41, "volume": 103872, "typical_volume": 105648.7, "trend": 6.415333, "fair_value": 4.093422, "relative_strength": -23.228061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.320588, "energy": 25.490399, "activity_lines": [ 5.733333, 5.714818, 6.0265, 6.186323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.66, "volume": 77554, "typical_volume": 103775.65, "trend": 6.350833, "fair_value": 4.116371, "relative_strength": -23.442602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.208153, "energy": 28.088652, "activity_lines": [ 5.682667, 5.706545, 5.964619, 6.137591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }