{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f74cafc-4812-4086-99cd-69d7422cd0af", "symbol": "900945", "name": "Hainan Airlines Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.515, "architecture_energy": 81.995, "architecture_maturity": 57.714, "architecture_confidence": 90.505, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 12.73, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 38.75, "rotation_down": 75.39, "downward_expansion": 95.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.202867, 0.209164, 0.220262, 0.230144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.203, "trend_reference": 0.245, "distance_from_trend": -0.171429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.23366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131217, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.008935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264493, "excess_performance": -0.221289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084112, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 623312, "relative_activity": 0.721799, "balance": 0.394832, "dry_up": 0.863351, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055703, "annualized_volatility": 0.192807, "from_high_reference": -0.338762, "from_low_reference": 0.051813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.245, "fair_value_reference": 0.23366, "structural_low": 0.193, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.009569, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.003414, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.255474, "worst_return": -0.11284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012432, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.291971, "worst_return": -0.139535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03139, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.038153, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.277372, "worst_return": -0.230088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142259, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064846, "active": false }, { 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"down", "direction": -87.627884, "energy": 74.116166, "activity_lines": [ 0.2144, 0.219291, 0.230005, 0.239725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.199, "volume": 643500, "typical_volume": 928556.95, "trend": 0.251133, "fair_value": 0.233737, "relative_strength": -22.413731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.719024, "energy": 84.391849, "activity_lines": [ 0.2082, 0.214764, 0.226252, 0.236226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.202, "volume": 837225, "typical_volume": 874028.2, "trend": 0.248133, "fair_value": 0.233679, "relative_strength": -20.944832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.466026, "energy": 85.115995, "activity_lines": [ 0.204667, 0.211636, 0.223076, 0.233056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.203, "volume": 623312, "typical_volume": 863553.7, "trend": 0.245, "fair_value": 0.23366, "relative_strength": -22.008935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.515261, "energy": 81.995141, "activity_lines": [ 0.202867, 0.209164, 0.220262, 0.230144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }