{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f802ccb-4961-41d6-a4b7-183bee28b486", "symbol": "OBT", "name": "Orange County Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.679, "architecture_energy": 50.959, "architecture_maturity": 27.047, "architecture_confidence": 92.635, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.24, "rotation_up": 61.05, "upward_expansion": 83.24, "deceleration": 51.63, "rotation_down": 19.9, "downward_expansion": 7.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.084, 37.690727, 36.518317, 35.577452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.61, "trend_reference": 34.340917, "distance_from_trend": 0.124315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.536741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.23098, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108368, "excess_performance": -0.079086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454964, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10231, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108368, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.695664, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238067, "relative_activity": 0.720784, "balance": 2.695664, "dry_up": 0.920553, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057676, "annualized_volatility": 0.227211, "from_high_reference": -0.037155, "from_low_reference": 0.717779 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.340917, "fair_value_reference": 26.536741, "structural_low": 29.374761, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008864, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": 0.030607, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.237215, "worst_return": -0.256464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.021263, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.00245, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.443873, "worst_return": -0.278595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033293, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049245, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.298544, "worst_return": -0.177194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.283222, "energy": 46.904523, "activity_lines": [ 37.330667, 36.678034, 35.550924, 34.705598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.69, "volume": 426220, "typical_volume": 324983.5, "trend": 33.669234, "fair_value": 26.332176, "relative_strength": 14.899464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.482626, "energy": 43.543157, "activity_lines": [ 37.466667, 37.014768, 35.859247, 34.985036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.25, "volume": 261874, "typical_volume": 329328.9, "trend": 34.008309, "fair_value": 26.43623, "relative_strength": 15.353621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.233046, "energy": 44.275913, "activity_lines": [ 37.758667, 37.35983, 36.19045, 35.280569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.61, "volume": 238067, "typical_volume": 330288.8, "trend": 34.340917, "fair_value": 26.536741, "relative_strength": 10.23098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.679118, "energy": 50.959307, "activity_lines": [ 38.084, 37.690727, 36.518317, 35.577452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }