{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f86f9a4-53a1-47e7-a20f-fd54720c9c5c", "symbol": "2842", "name": "iFreeETF NASDAQ100 Inverse", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.488, "architecture_energy": 31.52, "architecture_maturity": 90.193, "architecture_confidence": 77.602, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.72, "rotation_up": 35.74, "upward_expansion": 22.85, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 28.31, "downward_expansion": 59.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 12598.0, 12449.818182, 12490.0, 12895.731183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12190.0, "trend_reference": 13394.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.089914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17691.762821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.196613, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169619, "excess_performance": -0.378877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.563138, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48165, "relative_activity": 1.462335, "balance": 1.563138, "dry_up": 1.851729, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03619, "annualized_volatility": 0.199174, "from_high_reference": -0.230186, "from_low_reference": 0.033927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13394.333333, "fair_value_reference": 17691.762821, "structural_low": 11790.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.019381, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.052737, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.117874, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029072, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.055955, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.065817, "worst_return": -0.11464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090168, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.235453, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.055952, "worst_return": -0.137453, 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13491.0, "fair_value": 17834.230769, "relative_strength": -25.933661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.949465, "energy": 38.468116, "activity_lines": [ 12446.0, 12297.181818, 12557.738095, 12998.623656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13165.0, "volume": 86077, "typical_volume": 31929.45, "trend": 13458.833333, "fair_value": 17767.660256, "relative_strength": -21.996188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.444479, "energy": 26.561086, "activity_lines": [ 12712.0, 12470.727273, 12566.595238, 12977.591398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12190.0, "volume": 48165, "typical_volume": 32937.05, "trend": 13394.333333, "fair_value": 17691.762821, "relative_strength": -28.196613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.488049, "energy": 31.520158, "activity_lines": [ 12598.0, 12449.818182, 12490.0, 12895.731183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }