{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f8ae0e9-aa3e-44ef-b98b-5143b08a9a10", "symbol": "CBAT", "name": "CBAK Energy Technology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.375, "architecture_energy": 52.784, "architecture_maturity": 76.886, "architecture_confidence": 94.69, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 23.5, "upward_expansion": 8.42, "deceleration": 60.56, "rotation_down": 58.31, "downward_expansion": 84.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.56122, 0.57512, 0.645668, 0.705303 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.6524, "trend_reference": 0.7741, "distance_from_trend": -0.157215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.947898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.271818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191373, "excess_performance": -0.378827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2239947, "relative_activity": 3.384433, "balance": 0.623496, "dry_up": 1.536777, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14314, "annualized_volatility": 0.670699, "from_high_reference": -0.473871, "from_low_reference": 0.414877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7741, "fair_value_reference": 0.947898, "structural_low": 0.4611, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.045349, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.06478, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.683757, "worst_return": -0.366864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.064178, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.737452, "worst_return": -0.484919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.127618, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.158893, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.425601, "worst_return": -0.677494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022906, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.233772, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.401274, "worst_return": -0.723898, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.106529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134454, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.585257, "energy": 87.463152, "activity_lines": [ 0.562733, 0.621611, 0.69677, 0.750812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5225, "volume": 574573, "typical_volume": 592506.15, "trend": 0.793337, "fair_value": 0.955259, "relative_strength": -44.045077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.76504, "energy": 81.858069, "activity_lines": [ 0.540987, 0.594975, 0.673977, 0.732606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4992, "volume": 595796, "typical_volume": 584784.25, "trend": 0.781457, "fair_value": 0.950703, "relative_strength": -46.152411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.341073, "energy": 77.494495, "activity_lines": [ 0.522207, 0.56884, 0.651287, 0.71363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6524, "volume": 2239947, "typical_volume": 661838.1, "trend": 0.7741, "fair_value": 0.947898, "relative_strength": -32.271818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.374597, "energy": 52.783835, "activity_lines": [ 0.56122, 0.57512, 0.645668, 0.705303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }