{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f9063c3-a011-4246-914d-b0430066f581", "symbol": "SBMO", "name": "SBM Offshore N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.4, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.566, "architecture_energy": 8.435, "architecture_maturity": 24.184, "architecture_confidence": 72.048, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.28, "rotation_up": 36.56, "upward_expansion": 25.72, "deceleration": 49.52, "rotation_down": 22.16, "downward_expansion": 25.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.514667, 32.230546, 32.958769, 33.03237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.48, "trend_reference": 32.578794, "distance_from_trend": -0.003032, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.448506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.670051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.732704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.124553, "excess_performance": -0.049694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093113, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.670051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.102506, "dry_up": 0.812568, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056461, "annualized_volatility": 0.291453, "from_high_reference": -0.122162, "from_low_reference": 0.584106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.578794, "fair_value_reference": 19.448506, "structural_low": 28.843154, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014523, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029619, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.128694, "worst_return": -0.058823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031527, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.006184, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.256929, "worst_return": -0.044986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199797, "worst_return": -0.056111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.120387, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136572, "worst_return": 0.104202, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058823, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.52, "volume": 484, "typical_volume": 120.65, "trend": 31.501, "fair_value": 18.912843, "relative_strength": -5.90637, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.458602, "energy": 42.98002, "activity_lines": [ 31.485333, 32.349818, 33.355612, 32.870771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.65, "trend": 31.749959, "fair_value": 19.041174, "relative_strength": -3.872925, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.384492, "energy": 50.950637, "activity_lines": [ 31.382666, 32.081091, 33.173322, 32.877158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.65, "trend": 32.067612, "fair_value": 19.181331, "relative_strength": 0.96033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.236425, "energy": 18.024875, "activity_lines": [ 32.125333, 32.250182, 33.194643, 33.004258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.360001, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 46.15, "trend": 32.336646, "fair_value": 19.312827, "relative_strength": -3.126046, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.199818, "energy": 5.586324, "activity_lines": [ 32.349334, 32.208, 33.070728, 33.023122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 46.15, "trend": 32.578794, "fair_value": 19.448506, "relative_strength": -5.732704, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.566475, "energy": 8.435377, "activity_lines": [ 32.514667, 32.230546, 32.958769, 33.03237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }