{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f93c77b-523f-4097-907b-3fdddc1b7fad", "symbol": "BCG", "name": "Brightcom Group Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.12, "architecture_energy": 39.498, "architecture_maturity": 17.111, "architecture_confidence": 83.207, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.81, "rotation_up": 11.38, "upward_expansion": 5.2, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 66.31, "downward_expansion": 83.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.393333, 9.653818, 9.876952, 9.881398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.3, "trend_reference": 9.934667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063884, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.279231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242624, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.621592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129213, "excess_performance": -0.085504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242624, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.880103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20267377, "relative_activity": 1.188767, "balance": 0.880103, "dry_up": 1.051375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110091, "annualized_volatility": 0.61181, "from_high_reference": -0.474576, "from_low_reference": 0.166876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.934667, "fair_value_reference": 12.279231, "structural_low": 7.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.059387, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.076255, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.149103, "worst_return": -0.077135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.24937, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.284376, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.149103, "worst_return": -0.37047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.59417, "worst_return": -0.527456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.286133, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.320014, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.043803, "worst_return": -0.528463, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.24937, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.37224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.387317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", 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10.368545, 10.06481, 10.072409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.52, "volume": 19854463, "typical_volume": 17621264.6, "trend": 10.072667, "fair_value": 12.680769, "relative_strength": -17.307632, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.709844, "energy": 23.263517, "activity_lines": [ 9.895333, 10.236727, 10.024667, 10.033161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.68, "volume": 25390346, "typical_volume": 17272781.55, "trend": 10.032333, "fair_value": 12.573269, "relative_strength": -15.410382, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.323351, "energy": 23.910194, "activity_lines": [ 9.754667, 10.133818, 10.007048, 10.007828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.4, "volume": 12971465, "typical_volume": 17207855.95, "trend": 9.999, "fair_value": 12.48032, "relative_strength": -15.453052, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.879265, "energy": 28.880043, "activity_lines": [ 9.602667, 9.978364, 9.967667, 9.967032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.33, "volume": 13070713, "typical_volume": 17021411.15, "trend": 9.958333, "fair_value": 12.378269, "relative_strength": -17.572709, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.88189, "energy": 43.122109, "activity_lines": [ 9.486667, 9.807455, 9.923762, 9.923871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.3, "volume": 20267377, "typical_volume": 17049076.15, "trend": 9.934667, "fair_value": 12.279231, "relative_strength": -17.621592, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.119865, "energy": 39.498188, "activity_lines": [ 9.393333, 9.653818, 9.876952, 9.881398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }