{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8f999201-a9de-4b65-8294-832a019a6d98", "symbol": "KP2", "name": "Kore Potash plc", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.026, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.125, "architecture_energy": 63.058, "architecture_maturity": 11.428, "architecture_confidence": 79.313, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.1, "rotation_up": 73.45, "upward_expansion": 53.88, "deceleration": 19.1, "rotation_down": 14.24, "downward_expansion": 26.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0612, 0.059682, 0.058293, 0.058838 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.064, "trend_reference": 0.059933, "distance_from_trend": 0.067853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.041212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.552963, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.33409, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015873, "excess_performance": -0.047833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067853, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.552963, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058608, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015873, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 21.386721, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362207, "relative_activity": 0.653414, "balance": 21.386721, "dry_up": 0.894725, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03726, "annualized_volatility": 0.360513, "from_high_reference": -0.228916, "from_low_reference": 0.391304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.059933, "fair_value_reference": 0.041212, "structural_low": 0.053, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.06383, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.028095, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.185714, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.138981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.477273, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.348485, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.333519, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.261364, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.226152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014925, "active": false }, 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"typical_volume": 471214.45, "trend": 0.059533, "fair_value": 0.040564, "relative_strength": -3.316261, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.158981, "energy": 36.284926, "activity_lines": [ 0.059933, 0.058155, 0.057617, 0.058592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.059, "volume": 1540064, "typical_volume": 547150.0, "trend": 0.059667, "fair_value": 0.040865, "relative_strength": -5.84727, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.072604, "energy": 35.85162, "activity_lines": [ 0.059933, 0.058482, 0.057717, 0.058558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.064, "volume": 362207, "typical_volume": 554329.85, "trend": 0.059933, "fair_value": 0.041212, "relative_strength": -1.33409, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.125178, "energy": 63.058043, "activity_lines": [ 0.0612, 0.059682, 0.058293, 0.058838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }