{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fa85ded-c3e0-4412-91f4-3e27021f2554", "symbol": "CFL", "name": "Cofle S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.25, "architecture_energy": 36.033, "architecture_maturity": 36.785, "architecture_confidence": 62.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.59, "rotation_up": 20.31, "upward_expansion": 14.12, "deceleration": 65.19, "rotation_down": 46.76, "downward_expansion": 61.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.972, 2.010273, 1.970024, 2.073538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.84, "trend_reference": 2.279833, "distance_from_trend": -0.192923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.613418, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.601163, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.151796, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.384615, "excess_performance": -0.555507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.601163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.431518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.384615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.221786, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16821, "relative_activity": 0.696141, "balance": 1.221786, "dry_up": 0.495547, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084657, "annualized_volatility": 0.492472, "from_high_reference": -0.559809, "from_low_reference": 0.171975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.279833, "fair_value_reference": 4.613418, "structural_low": 1.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037345, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021547, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.134375, "worst_return": -0.143251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024389, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.127255, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.123894, "worst_return": -0.140496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.330233, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.477765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.118457, "worst_return": -0.358407, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106977, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.043716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074499, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156164, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.328319, "energy": 31.247793, "activity_lines": [ 2.085333, 1.984364, 2.001405, 2.173172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.14, "volume": 4597, "typical_volume": 25306.3, "trend": 2.400167, "fair_value": 4.80962, "relative_strength": -34.369697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.136973, "energy": 24.693931, "activity_lines": [ 2.118667, 2.025545, 2.003524, 2.154215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 19648, "typical_volume": 25215.6, "trend": 2.360167, "fair_value": 4.743273, "relative_strength": -38.054005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.24737, "energy": 19.448754, "activity_lines": [ 2.081333, 2.034455, 1.993738, 2.127753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 6830, "typical_volume": 24391.1, "trend": 2.320167, "fair_value": 4.677612, "relative_strength": -37.418342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.23948, "energy": 13.684869, "activity_lines": [ 2.050667, 2.039909, 1.987952, 2.104516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.84, "volume": 16821, "typical_volume": 24163.2, "trend": 2.279833, "fair_value": 4.613418, "relative_strength": -43.151796, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.250105, "energy": 36.033103, "activity_lines": [ 1.972, 2.010273, 1.970024, 2.073538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }