{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fa87126-6539-4c8a-82ba-7a1d5494877a", "symbol": "PLS", "name": "PLS Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.8, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.785, "architecture_energy": 66.621, "architecture_maturity": 14.937, "architecture_confidence": 58.618, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.6, "rotation_up": 16.44, "upward_expansion": 23.27, "deceleration": 43.48, "rotation_down": 73.19, "downward_expansion": 64.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.347333, 4.677455, 5.219905, 5.242194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.58, "trend_reference": 5.156, "distance_from_trend": -0.111715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.403399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.523631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11165, "excess_performance": 0.047945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073123, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345713, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.520243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005236, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.855995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.22587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120329769, "relative_activity": 1.080651, "balance": 1.22587, "dry_up": 1.057381, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129997, "annualized_volatility": 0.675162, "from_high_reference": -0.32746, "from_low_reference": 1.391645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.156, "fair_value_reference": 3.403399, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040921, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050947, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.037333, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035088, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070176, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.317185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.257859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.670175, "worst_return": -0.035806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.288952, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.193605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.797852, "worst_return": -0.219949, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040921, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.289954, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.287975, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.14823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.431138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030675, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10628, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.591174, "volume": 139032624, "typical_volume": 127622077.0, "trend": 4.377467, "fair_value": 2.602626, "relative_strength": 5.985185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"fair_value": 3.411525, "relative_strength": -1.95621, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.995798, "energy": 71.344726, "activity_lines": [ 4.494, 5.031455, 5.427048, 5.344903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.15, "volume": 130399377, "typical_volume": 112663957.65, "trend": 5.158333, "fair_value": 3.40708, "relative_strength": -4.981392, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.224834, "energy": 71.775939, "activity_lines": [ 4.319333, 4.795455, 5.301238, 5.279505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.58, "volume": 120329769, "typical_volume": 111349293.95, "trend": 5.156, "fair_value": 3.403399, "relative_strength": 0.523631, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.785335, "energy": 66.621114, "activity_lines": [ 4.347333, 4.677455, 5.219905, 5.242194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }