{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fa9592d-2016-4bfa-be60-fc0fb58b70ab", "symbol": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla, Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.878, "architecture_energy": 81.632, "architecture_maturity": 19.557, "architecture_confidence": 82.326, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.96, "rotation_up": 10.8, "upward_expansion": 21.34, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 77.12, "downward_expansion": 92.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.987333, 31.044181, 32.916095, 33.419871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.549999, "trend_reference": 34.375166, "distance_from_trend": -0.169459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.627436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.796263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21089, "excess_performance": -0.331311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.287963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685629, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2179100, "relative_activity": 0.687407, "balance": 0.685629, "dry_up": 1.093909, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093736, "annualized_volatility": 0.451857, "from_high_reference": -0.350841, "from_low_reference": 0.104022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.375166, "fair_value_reference": 27.627436, "structural_low": 25.860001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043043, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.041686, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.20369, "worst_return": -0.139136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102371, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.013736, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.298065, "worst_return": -0.086085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.347175, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.50803, "worst_return": 0.186321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005479, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091209, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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35.194333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.709999, "volume": 82300, "typical_volume": 2791380.0, "trend": 36.1085, "fair_value": 27.437051, "relative_strength": -12.070122, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.188176, "energy": 23.744021, "activity_lines": [ 34.304665, 35.150727, 34.77088, 35.092333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.450001, "volume": 2878800, "typical_volume": 2873000.0, "trend": 35.9405, "fair_value": 27.495769, "relative_strength": -10.293667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.584176, "energy": 19.149542, "activity_lines": [ 34.658666, 35.127818, 34.858047, 35.049849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.259998, "volume": 2554600, "typical_volume": 2915365.0, "trend": 35.634833, "fair_value": 27.553205, "relative_strength": -15.542323, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.834095, "energy": 29.556583, "activity_lines": [ 34.195332, 34.683999, 34.740119, 34.876914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.309999, "volume": 6191500, "typical_volume": 3128740.0, "trend": 35.118833, "fair_value": 27.568462, "relative_strength": -30.554349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.607046, "energy": 67.175989, "activity_lines": [ 31.893999, 33.233635, 34.065666, 34.339827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.040001, "volume": 2945700, "typical_volume": 3162250.0, "trend": 34.7305, "fair_value": 27.589615, "relative_strength": -30.681418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.519168, "energy": 80.958721, "activity_lines": [ 29.988666, 31.908181, 33.401571, 33.818613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.549999, "volume": 2179100, "typical_volume": 3170030.0, "trend": 34.375166, "fair_value": 27.627436, "relative_strength": -28.796263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.877584, "energy": 81.631902, "activity_lines": [ 28.987333, 31.044181, 32.916095, 33.419871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }