{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fb92574-4cf1-4230-bd64-feca1750d6ce", "symbol": "XDWI", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Industrials UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.146, "architecture_energy": 69.812, "architecture_maturity": 54.599, "architecture_confidence": 78.925, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 67.9, "upward_expansion": 84.8, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 19.88, "downward_expansion": 11.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.272667, 70.706183, 69.384096, 68.323528 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 72.779999, "trend_reference": 67.128334, "distance_from_trend": 0.084192, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.260576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.821742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111315, "excess_performance": 0.028431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053813, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018217, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.928614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212, "relative_activity": 0.244394, "balance": 2.928614, "dry_up": 0.781025, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019268, "annualized_volatility": 0.136702, "from_high_reference": -0.047691, "from_low_reference": 0.247301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.128334, "fair_value_reference": 56.260576, "structural_low": 61.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.001714, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.441176, "median_excess_return": -0.003399, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.080379, "worst_return": -0.073848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.027909, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.002405, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178869, "worst_return": -0.079789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056597, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.03138, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.147085, "worst_return": -0.135183, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.689694, "energy": 77.024456, "activity_lines": [ 70.409335, 69.863638, 68.57043, 67.676151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.620003, "volume": 1485, "typical_volume": 921.95, "trend": 66.841667, "fair_value": 56.078076, "relative_strength": 0.172684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.406873, "energy": 58.016522, "activity_lines": [ 70.510668, 70.124547, 68.890811, 67.94041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.779999, "volume": 212, "typical_volume": 867.45, "trend": 67.128334, "fair_value": 56.260576, "relative_strength": 1.821742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.145921, "energy": 69.811992, "activity_lines": [ 71.272667, 70.706183, 69.384096, 68.323528 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }