{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fb930d5-feb9-4e4f-8235-78d88f1d4dde", "symbol": "COF", "name": "Capital One Financial Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.261, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.693, "architecture_energy": 53.045, "architecture_maturity": 13.88, "architecture_confidence": 55.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.1, "rotation_up": 64.26, "upward_expansion": 57.2, "deceleration": 26.9, "rotation_down": 19.5, "downward_expansion": 17.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 210.062667, 206.237455, 199.578233, 197.165032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 217.76, "trend_reference": 198.233176, "distance_from_trend": 0.098504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 169.441208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.167826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014452, "excess_performance": -0.140077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117868, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.092234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16703143, "relative_activity": 0.76585, "balance": 2.092234, "dry_up": 0.98827, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056929, "annualized_volatility": 0.294466, "from_high_reference": -0.154312, "from_low_reference": 0.249954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 198.233176, "fair_value_reference": 169.441208, "structural_low": 174.214349, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013446, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217416, "worst_return": -0.096014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045945, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277297, "worst_return": -0.27528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.123821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302549, "worst_return": -0.054907, "sufficient": false }, { 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200.441885, "fair_value": 168.078973, "relative_strength": -10.060751, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.157191, "energy": 44.971322, "activity_lines": [ 204.341333, 200.452727, 195.596641, 195.415649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 209.01, "volume": 22331043, "typical_volume": 22411499.35, "trend": 199.212689, "fair_value": 168.722839, "relative_strength": -8.025192, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.597885, "energy": 41.374352, "activity_lines": [ 205.910667, 202.742545, 197.242215, 195.968431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 217.76, "volume": 16703143, "typical_volume": 21809930.35, "trend": 198.233176, "fair_value": 169.441208, "relative_strength": -7.167826, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.693094, "energy": 53.045114, "activity_lines": [ 210.062667, 206.237455, 199.578233, 197.165032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }