{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fc8ba62-2dd9-405d-9b27-f0976e3e7e4e", "symbol": "XTAP", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated Plus ETF - April", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.934, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.08, "architecture_energy": 83.772, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.773, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 65.61, "upward_expansion": 91.7, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 28.64, "downward_expansion": 16.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.783667, 45.545947, 45.149346, 44.405014 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.2495, "trend_reference": 43.361937, "distance_from_trend": 0.066592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.818675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.451182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128656, "excess_performance": 0.003031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066592, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.21107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1783, "relative_activity": 0.24678, "balance": 2.21107, "dry_up": 0.4137, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008267, "annualized_volatility": 0.058043, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.190157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.361937, "fair_value_reference": 35.818675, "structural_low": 40.81, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.010958, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.006902, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.066381, "worst_return": -0.021382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045978, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013041, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.093546, "worst_return": 0.001447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075543, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021051, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.133955, "worst_return": 0.041118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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77.218589, "activity_lines": [ 45.28772, 45.137422, 44.488554, 43.693724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.4081, "volume": 2178, "typical_volume": 7136.6, "trend": 42.85594, "fair_value": 35.487763, "relative_strength": 0.555474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.945775, "energy": 87.067226, "activity_lines": [ 45.360167, 45.208064, 44.658103, 43.868851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.3507, "volume": 1304, "typical_volume": 6962.75, "trend": 43.01242, "fair_value": 35.593827, "relative_strength": 1.026359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.564101, "energy": 85.873576, "activity_lines": [ 45.381867, 45.254787, 44.801669, 44.029803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.7598, "volume": 6691, "typical_volume": 7255.95, "trend": 43.18112, "fair_value": 35.70474, "relative_strength": 0.871422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.286302, "energy": 87.807567, "activity_lines": [ 45.5283, 45.363209, 44.963307, 44.207054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.2495, "volume": 1783, "typical_volume": 7225.05, "trend": 43.361937, "fair_value": 35.818675, "relative_strength": -1.451182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.080335, "energy": 83.771642, "activity_lines": [ 45.783667, 45.545947, 45.149346, 44.405014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }