{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fc96bf5-9c56-4c33-8db0-034221754fc8", "symbol": "XZDU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA High Dividend Yield ESG UCITS ETF 1D USD Income", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.251, "architecture_energy": 66.251, "architecture_maturity": 44.435, "architecture_confidence": 76.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 54.33, "upward_expansion": 81.87, "deceleration": 69.06, "rotation_down": 28.65, "downward_expansion": 10.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.445999, 43.243863, 42.889579, 42.110716 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.6175, "trend_reference": 41.185771, "distance_from_trend": 0.083323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.300005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.556394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117703, "excess_performance": 0.066468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300802, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03653, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045564, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026656, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.866238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.866238, "dry_up": 0.789377, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015023, "annualized_volatility": 0.117529, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.263826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.185771, "fair_value_reference": 34.300005, "structural_low": 37.126183, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056952, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041311, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074064, "worst_return": 0.039839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.133705, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133705, "worst_return": 0.133705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.116895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04344, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 27.430529, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 26.811668, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ 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34.174272, "relative_strength": 1.915799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.655488, "energy": 49.550866, "activity_lines": [ 42.919166, 43.010682, 42.494776, 41.749111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.842499, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 542.25, "trend": 41.003752, "fair_value": 34.231677, "relative_strength": 0.804754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.287991, "energy": 45.630626, "activity_lines": [ 42.893166, 42.961682, 42.617919, 41.877571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.6175, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 542.2, "trend": 41.185771, "fair_value": 34.300005, "relative_strength": 4.556394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.251167, "energy": 66.250898, "activity_lines": [ 43.445999, 43.243863, 42.889579, 42.110716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }