{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fd84d8d-46e3-4888-9517-993c48f2d3c3", "symbol": "AV1", "name": "Adveritas Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.944, "architecture_energy": 63.868, "architecture_maturity": 76.831, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.37, "rotation_up": 21.25, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 60.79, "downward_expansion": 85.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0732, 0.075255, 0.078786, 0.082787 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.072, "trend_reference": 0.09005, "distance_from_trend": -0.200444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.087157, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.668155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257732, "excess_performance": -0.321438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18605, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.260361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240296, "relative_activity": 0.220895, "balance": 0.260361, "dry_up": 0.571605, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082799, "annualized_volatility": 0.398595, "from_high_reference": -0.621053, "from_low_reference": 0.058824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.09005, "fair_value_reference": 0.087157, "structural_low": 0.068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.24, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.039938, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.273973, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.064097, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.24878, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.112721, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1198959.7, "trend": 0.09465, "fair_value": 0.086837, "relative_strength": -37.330683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.995905, "energy": 49.195845, "activity_lines": [ 0.0775, 0.077618, 0.081276, 0.085688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 1281874, "typical_volume": 1210534.65, "trend": 0.092317, "fair_value": 0.086984, "relative_strength": -41.368034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.904351, "energy": 60.95353, "activity_lines": [ 0.074667, 0.076136, 0.079879, 0.084098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.072, "volume": 240296, "typical_volume": 1087831.5, "trend": 0.09005, "fair_value": 0.087157, "relative_strength": -40.668155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.944294, "energy": 63.868022, "activity_lines": [ 0.0732, 0.075255, 0.078786, 0.082787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }