{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fd9f18b-a8ea-4fbf-8c6f-98970a2ab870", "symbol": "NIU", "name": "Niu Technologies", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.205, "architecture_energy": 27.875, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.285, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.73, "rotation_up": 36.65, "upward_expansion": 19.23, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 21.54, "downward_expansion": 55.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.518, 2.383091, 2.455857, 2.624387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.46, "trend_reference": 2.845333, "distance_from_trend": -0.135426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.71516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.250398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276471, "excess_performance": -0.463924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 721846, "relative_activity": 0.413672, "balance": 0.411809, "dry_up": 0.674377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12641, "annualized_volatility": 0.602861, "from_high_reference": -0.566138, "from_low_reference": 0.277922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.845333, "fair_value_reference": 2.71516, "structural_low": 1.925, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.056145, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.529052, "worst_return": -0.341463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.236897, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.259374, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.531579, "worst_return": -0.516484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.349254, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.337663, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.910526, "worst_return": -0.557716, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.460581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.198397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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-31.584328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.707256, "energy": 48.062206, "activity_lines": [ 2.259333, 2.250182, 2.489857, 2.693419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.57, "volume": 1669968, "typical_volume": 2117837.65, "trend": 2.893667, "fair_value": 2.732853, "relative_strength": -31.06309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.632336, "energy": 30.392061, "activity_lines": [ 2.388, 2.297818, 2.475762, 2.670774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.59, "volume": 777204, "typical_volume": 2009682.45, "trend": 2.875333, "fair_value": 2.722917, "relative_strength": -30.267395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.589757, "energy": 27.7802, "activity_lines": [ 2.496, 2.354, 2.469286, 2.651183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.46, "volume": 721846, "typical_volume": 1744971.75, "trend": 2.845333, "fair_value": 2.71516, "relative_strength": -36.250398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.204893, "energy": 27.875413, "activity_lines": [ 2.518, 2.383091, 2.455857, 2.624387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }