{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fdd9400-52fb-42e3-8ed2-3306f9dc6c7b", "symbol": "CGTL", "name": "Creative Global Technology Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.113, "architecture_energy": 50.633, "architecture_maturity": 79.845, "architecture_confidence": 88.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.23, "rotation_up": 28.37, "upward_expansion": 8.34, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 51.82, "downward_expansion": 84.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.284, 4.728073, 6.843686, 11.01432 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.07, "trend_reference": 19.803117, "distance_from_trend": -0.794477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.774722, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.867749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -78.877747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.940886, "excess_performance": -1.12834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.794477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.867749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.788777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.505963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.940886, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.185062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1154994, "relative_activity": 0.053761, "balance": 2.185062, "dry_up": 0.019068, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.081051, "annualized_volatility": 1.627493, "from_high_reference": -0.957604, "from_low_reference": 0.790979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.803117, "fair_value_reference": 30.774722, "structural_low": 2.2725, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.157706, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.146342, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.077044, "worst_return": -0.238367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.81, "volume": 80726, "typical_volume": 21957857.25, "trend": 21.443783, "fair_value": 31.389313, "relative_strength": -74.331795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.690756, "energy": 55.940766, "activity_lines": [ 4.799933, 5.259564, 8.108624, 13.229561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.01, "volume": 125215, "typical_volume": 21940912.35, "trend": 20.97245, "fair_value": 31.078185, "relative_strength": -78.421027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.605636, "energy": 54.610209, "activity_lines": [ 4.464333, 4.977473, 7.434274, 12.104801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.07, "volume": 1154994, "typical_volume": 21484039.65, "trend": 19.803117, "fair_value": 30.774722, "relative_strength": -78.877747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.112596, "energy": 50.633188, "activity_lines": [ 4.284, 4.728073, 6.843686, 11.01432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }