{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fddc0af-a5fc-4aa5-a620-0e148572ed22", "symbol": "PXT", "name": "Parex Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.411, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.024, "architecture_energy": 7.726, "architecture_maturity": 21.297, "architecture_confidence": 72.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.38, "rotation_up": 31.99, "upward_expansion": 23.36, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 28.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.836, 23.528273, 24.354683, 24.494409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.43, "trend_reference": 23.955729, "distance_from_trend": 0.019798, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.571047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.157489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.186819, "excess_performance": 0.066398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019798, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031575, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3911900, "relative_activity": 1.114721, "balance": 1.408321, "dry_up": 0.931679, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091399, "annualized_volatility": 0.445562, "from_high_reference": -0.179097, "from_low_reference": 0.659802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.955729, "fair_value_reference": 17.571047, "structural_low": 19.569495, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034392, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034595, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.118499, "worst_return": -0.164801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.110773, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.060266, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.208032, "worst_return": -0.425944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098159, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.05736, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.357874, "worst_return": -0.317936, "sufficient": true }, 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"relative_strength": 3.20792, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.161971, "energy": 46.420154, "activity_lines": [ 22.621333, 23.362523, 24.523478, 24.402827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.280001, "volume": 3163900, "typical_volume": 3775850.0, "trend": 23.742472, "fair_value": 17.5414, "relative_strength": 6.240753, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.867165, "energy": 19.286723, "activity_lines": [ 23.278, 23.415628, 24.428561, 24.450052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.43, "volume": 3911900, "typical_volume": 3509310.0, "trend": 23.955729, "fair_value": 17.571047, "relative_strength": 3.157489, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.023641, "energy": 7.726266, "activity_lines": [ 23.836, 23.528273, 24.354683, 24.494409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }