{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fe607a5-2e3a-4a84-9517-0e043ca17211", "symbol": "603005", "name": "China Wafer Level CSP Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.382, "architecture_energy": 31.624, "architecture_maturity": 61.028, "architecture_confidence": 52.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.3, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 15.86, "deceleration": 72.8, "rotation_down": 63.33, "downward_expansion": 40.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.230667, 36.684, 37.453748, 35.945253 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.790001, "trend_reference": 34.085178, "distance_from_trend": -0.00866, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.261513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.086528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070841, "excess_performance": 0.114045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060865, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056766, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.576293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272153058, "relative_activity": 1.15233, "balance": 2.576293, "dry_up": 1.19728, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218614, "annualized_volatility": 0.800014, "from_high_reference": -0.359674, "from_low_reference": 0.308393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.085178, "fair_value_reference": 26.261513, "structural_low": 25.825574, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029989, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015182, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.165972, "worst_return": -0.099079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047193, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.050398, "worst_return": -0.098141, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08267, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.149286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563325, "worst_return": 0.05814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041652, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008922, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": 2.113134, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.529048, "energy": 21.945408, "activity_lines": [ 40.773334, 42.113091, 38.707274, 36.451018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.76, "volume": 306580675, "typical_volume": 226074311.1, "trend": 33.834437, "fair_value": 26.144362, "relative_strength": -0.181768, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.031416, "energy": 18.949265, "activity_lines": [ 36.598667, 40.137818, 38.243623, 36.260215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.040001, "volume": 241820279, "typical_volume": 230057734.75, "trend": 33.877485, "fair_value": 26.196128, "relative_strength": -6.100364, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.476917, "energy": 30.487266, "activity_lines": [ 32.847334, 37.887273, 37.619805, 35.950897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.790001, "volume": 272153058, "typical_volume": 236176407.7, "trend": 34.085178, "fair_value": 26.261513, "relative_strength": 6.086528, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.381764, "energy": 31.624414, "activity_lines": [ 32.230667, 36.684, 37.453748, 35.945253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }