{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8fe74db8-406a-4932-8181-61622622b87a", "symbol": "XM27", "name": "Xtrackers Target Maturity Sept", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.265, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.335, "architecture_energy": 50.317, "architecture_maturity": 36.05, "architecture_confidence": 72.052, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.38, "rotation_up": 64.59, "upward_expansion": 84.4, "deceleration": 62.11, "rotation_down": 20.24, "downward_expansion": 6.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.276333, 9.270073, 9.254543, 9.241069 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.289, "trend_reference": 9.225867, "distance_from_trend": 0.006843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.111919, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019434, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.524969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008797, "excess_performance": -0.162095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003663, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008797, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.272612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6472, "relative_activity": 1.96813, "balance": 5.272612, "dry_up": 1.374985, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003238, "annualized_volatility": 0.007152, "from_high_reference": -0.015996, "from_low_reference": 0.020769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.225867, "fair_value_reference": 9.111919, "structural_low": 9.17, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002699, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 8.909, "volume": 220, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 8.909, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.581432, "energy": 76.871686, "activity_lines": [ 9.262467, 9.254055, 9.23639, 9.226265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.269, "volume": 4929, "typical_volume": 3024.5, "trend": 9.215933, "fair_value": 9.105952, "relative_strength": -11.844464, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.384626, "energy": 47.03659, "activity_lines": [ 9.265867, 9.258182, 9.24079, 9.22991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.269, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2939.75, "trend": 9.219367, "fair_value": 9.107893, "relative_strength": -11.335875, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.581873, "energy": 47.355778, "activity_lines": [ 9.2676, 9.261491, 9.244938, 9.233333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.273, "volume": 6685, "typical_volume": 3063.85, "trend": 9.222733, "fair_value": 9.109835, "relative_strength": -11.508101, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.017869, "energy": 45.177162, "activity_lines": [ 9.2696, 9.264691, 9.249176, 9.236794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.289, "volume": 6472, "typical_volume": 3288.4, "trend": 9.225867, "fair_value": 9.111919, "relative_strength": -13.524969, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.334666, "energy": 50.316915, "activity_lines": [ 9.276333, 9.270073, 9.254543, 9.241069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }