{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ff0f259-1794-4f1f-b125-337236b85d1b", "symbol": "3437", "name": "Bosera China Reform Hong Kong Central-SOEs High Dividend Yield Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.694, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.875, "architecture_energy": 25.738, "architecture_maturity": 64.51, "architecture_confidence": 77.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 64.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.782333, 9.675545, 9.939738, 10.111493 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.785, "trend_reference": 10.234003, "distance_from_trend": -0.043874, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.017977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.624934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036465, "excess_performance": -0.002884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114316, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016249, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1770266, "relative_activity": 1.025129, "balance": 0.782102, "dry_up": 1.041937, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036083, "annualized_volatility": 0.142719, "from_high_reference": -0.119557, "from_low_reference": 0.087996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.234003, "fair_value_reference": 9.017977, "structural_low": 9.13, 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036896, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.747001, "energy": 87.223653, "activity_lines": [ 9.401, 9.669091, 10.053629, 10.181044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.87, "volume": 1715673, "typical_volume": 1857713.65, "trend": 10.225449, "fair_value": 9.002043, "relative_strength": 2.078356, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.051259, "energy": 60.094825, "activity_lines": [ 9.555333, 9.660091, 10.011713, 10.158695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.94, "volume": 1588800, "typical_volume": 1737886.7, "trend": 10.23118, "fair_value": 9.010809, "relative_strength": -0.894265, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.737005, "energy": 37.826361, "activity_lines": [ 9.717, 9.676364, 9.980727, 10.140279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.785, "volume": 1770266, "typical_volume": 1726871.55, "trend": 10.234003, "fair_value": 9.017977, "relative_strength": -1.624934, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.874754, "energy": 25.738217, "activity_lines": [ 9.782333, 9.675545, 9.939738, 10.111493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }