{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ff14450-e3a1-4c6d-9d24-7877aec9d28f", "symbol": "PFSI", "name": "PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.013, "architecture_energy": 47.466, "architecture_maturity": 62.784, "architecture_confidence": 88.051, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.43, "rotation_up": 19.61, "upward_expansion": 5.48, "deceleration": 54.33, "rotation_down": 59.01, "downward_expansion": 78.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.644667, 81.310727, 83.409967, 85.308489 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.41, "trend_reference": 91.326769, "distance_from_trend": -0.152384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.837367, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.943587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184813, "excess_performance": -0.310438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152331, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192277, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14643, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4010107, "relative_activity": 1.452118, "balance": 0.816419, "dry_up": 1.203379, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072875, "annualized_volatility": 0.255343, "from_high_reference": -0.514019, "from_low_reference": 0.080014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.326769, "fair_value_reference": 95.837367, "structural_low": 71.675, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.010345, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.051459, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.221202, "worst_return": -0.137251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008048, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.119923, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086613, "worst_return": -0.139118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.089543, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243641, "worst_return": -0.064555, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 31.147153, "activity_lines": [ 84.053333, 83.648613, 85.409313, 88.462886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.35, "volume": 2100039, "typical_volume": 2659011.5, "trend": 95.427452, "fair_value": 95.783781, "relative_strength": -26.795016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.914868, "energy": 30.009181, "activity_lines": [ 84.198667, 83.755636, 85.228669, 87.643603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.41, "volume": 5118389, "typical_volume": 2714795.95, "trend": 93.586805, "fair_value": 95.799392, "relative_strength": -34.836817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.579203, "energy": 46.568926, "activity_lines": [ 81.232667, 82.256182, 84.203987, 86.352154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.41, "volume": 4010107, "typical_volume": 2761557.2, "trend": 91.326769, "fair_value": 95.837367, "relative_strength": -34.943587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.013359, "energy": 47.465546, "activity_lines": [ 79.644667, 81.310727, 83.409967, 85.308489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }