{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ff98564-5dc9-4a63-ba41-644b60f73bbb", "symbol": "5907", "name": "Grand Ocean Retail Group Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.46, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.165, "architecture_energy": 37.375, "architecture_maturity": 47.232, "architecture_confidence": 93.798, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.19, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 4.71, "deceleration": 53.39, "rotation_down": 48.68, "downward_expansion": 78.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.922667, 4.955818, 5.042762, 5.203097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.95, "trend_reference": 5.411333, "distance_from_trend": -0.085253, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.595897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.424144, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.07785, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150943, "excess_performance": -0.592315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085253, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.424144, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035632, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1335303, "relative_activity": 0.933636, "balance": 0.861786, "dry_up": 1.010686, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065579, "annualized_volatility": 0.218527, "from_high_reference": -0.254518, "from_low_reference": 0.078431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.411333, "fair_value_reference": 8.595897, "structural_low": 4.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.019599, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.024177, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.461814, "worst_return": -0.191781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.075472, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.104872, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.392479, "worst_return": -0.292896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.135846, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.193617, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.26322, "worst_return": -0.35082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 8.777949, "relative_strength": -39.227069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.925298, "energy": 40.866488, "activity_lines": [ 4.957333, 5.001455, 5.140333, 5.303527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 2151450, "typical_volume": 1395403.6, "trend": 5.452, "fair_value": 8.716731, "relative_strength": -36.404894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.167274, "energy": 41.185985, "activity_lines": [ 4.948667, 4.987818, 5.104714, 5.269763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.9, "volume": 1585050, "typical_volume": 1416952.35, "trend": 5.431333, "fair_value": 8.656154, "relative_strength": -37.553378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.135453, "energy": 42.642436, "activity_lines": [ 4.914, 4.966364, 5.068905, 5.234151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.95, "volume": 1335303, "typical_volume": 1430217.5, "trend": 5.411333, "fair_value": 8.595897, "relative_strength": -38.07785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.165406, "energy": 37.375289, "activity_lines": [ 4.922667, 4.955818, 5.042762, 5.203097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }