{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ffaa77f-6dda-4901-907b-8842a25e33b8", "symbol": "9930", "name": "CHC Resources Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.809, "architecture_energy": 64.388, "architecture_maturity": 29.224, "architecture_confidence": 86.029, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.35, "rotation_up": 12.73, "upward_expansion": 13.35, "deceleration": 39.94, "rotation_down": 72.67, "downward_expansion": 91.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.853333, 63.446285, 64.238429, 64.786808 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.799999, "trend_reference": 65.437429, "distance_from_trend": -0.040305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.909725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.800669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038957, "excess_performance": -0.480329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048244, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.876991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 360401, "relative_activity": 0.664491, "balance": 0.876991, "dry_up": 1.419121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024313, "annualized_volatility": 0.093417, "from_high_reference": -0.10843, "from_low_reference": 0.027823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.437429, "fair_value_reference": 59.909725, "structural_low": 61.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006329, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.065327, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.033973, "worst_return": -0.042507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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59.554694, "relative_strength": -31.691557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.444983, "energy": 69.797859, "activity_lines": [ 63.713334, 64.419156, 64.943376, 65.348614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.200001, "volume": 1110336, "typical_volume": 524322.55, "trend": 65.680382, "fair_value": 59.677273, "relative_strength": -30.167727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.673416, "energy": 72.115429, "activity_lines": [ 63.380001, 64.150332, 64.734875, 65.182353 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.299999, "volume": 720385, "typical_volume": 541910.3, "trend": 65.550572, "fair_value": 59.794082, "relative_strength": -31.938157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.496469, "energy": 74.456243, "activity_lines": [ 62.953334, 63.729452, 64.454019, 64.964264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 62.799999, "volume": 360401, "typical_volume": 542371.75, "trend": 65.437429, "fair_value": 59.909725, "relative_strength": -32.800669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.808969, "energy": 64.388316, "activity_lines": [ 62.853333, 63.446285, 64.238429, 64.786808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }