{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ffb85ae-126c-4619-bb31-7bd829bdab7b", "symbol": "600635", "name": "Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.88, "architecture_energy": 39.536, "architecture_maturity": 94.737, "architecture_confidence": 61.377, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.69, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 17.81, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 41.09, "downward_expansion": 67.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.554778, 4.508787, 4.752364, 5.033655 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.71, "trend_reference": 5.466277, "distance_from_trend": -0.138353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.163574, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.687874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265211, "excess_performance": -0.222007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166879, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681898, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208378335, "relative_activity": 0.997179, "balance": 0.681898, "dry_up": 1.02245, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0831, "annualized_volatility": 0.342549, "from_high_reference": -0.439286, "from_low_reference": 0.168734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.466277, "fair_value_reference": 4.163574, "structural_low": 4.166418, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003592, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010198, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.198251, "worst_return": -0.099379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024764, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029926, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.195592, "worst_return": -0.203499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.000955, "worst_return": -0.147365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053398, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 236551877.8, "trend": 5.591583, "fair_value": 4.145452, "relative_strength": -20.173589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.425515, "energy": 64.459934, "activity_lines": [ 4.34089, 4.488924, 4.822266, 5.143851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.700828, "volume": 198072886, "typical_volume": 215336899.45, "trend": 5.527277, "fair_value": 4.154702, "relative_strength": -14.458334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.502962, "energy": 53.954602, "activity_lines": [ 4.461333, 4.489484, 4.783118, 5.086383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.71, "volume": 208378335, "typical_volume": 208967817.4, "trend": 5.466277, "fair_value": 4.163574, "relative_strength": -16.687874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.88025, "energy": 39.536347, "activity_lines": [ 4.554778, 4.508787, 4.752364, 5.033655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }