{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90001be1-5a57-45e8-99b8-d5fba17efb30", "symbol": "KE", "name": "Kimball Electronics", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.45, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.422, "architecture_energy": 5.592, "architecture_maturity": 34.002, "architecture_confidence": 66.666, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 77.06, "rotation_up": 19.03, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 60.39, "rotation_down": 29.8, "downward_expansion": 50.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.163333, 25.058182, 25.238619, 25.22114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.13, "trend_reference": 25.583333, "distance_from_trend": 0.021368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.938942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.670912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006086, "excess_performance": -0.19354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 852335, "relative_activity": 1.025686, "balance": 1.093814, "dry_up": 1.106192, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090597, "annualized_volatility": 0.325545, "from_high_reference": -0.212715, "from_low_reference": 0.329095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.583333, "fair_value_reference": 22.938942, "structural_low": 21.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.041256, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.02934, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.169339, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079306, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08708, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.278857, "worst_return": -0.195026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.091234, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.181583, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.21, "worst_return": -0.144415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035352, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.162386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281, "worst_return": -0.210297, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.140721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046601, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132995, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057792, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.296185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021549, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009467, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039691, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 27.78, "volume": 464095, "typical_volume": 427737.1, "trend": 25.1775, "fair_value": 21.451314, "relative_strength": 2.115155, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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19.313274, "activity_lines": [ 25.033333, 25.136909, 25.289381, 25.523226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.36, "volume": 1104833, "typical_volume": 807615.3, "trend": 26.089333, "fair_value": 23.039776, "relative_strength": -18.169076, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.194073, "energy": 16.054835, "activity_lines": [ 25.141333, 25.137091, 25.316952, 25.465462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.97, "volume": 928871, "typical_volume": 811409.65, "trend": 25.937667, "fair_value": 23.00484, "relative_strength": -19.290506, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.402323, "energy": 28.892606, "activity_lines": [ 24.724, 24.918182, 25.210619, 25.328731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.86, "volume": 955969, "typical_volume": 821895.2, "trend": 25.792667, "fair_value": 22.97734, "relative_strength": -15.060026, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.876672, "energy": 21.315234, "activity_lines": [ 24.729333, 24.900545, 25.193905, 25.259204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.73, "volume": 939763, "typical_volume": 835165.45, "trend": 25.657333, "fair_value": 22.950096, "relative_strength": -16.073762, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.257836, "energy": 20.346334, "activity_lines": [ 24.720667, 24.853273, 25.15419, 25.190645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.13, "volume": 852335, "typical_volume": 830990.1, "trend": 25.583333, "fair_value": 22.938942, "relative_strength": -15.670912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.422448, "energy": 5.592349, "activity_lines": [ 25.163333, 25.058182, 25.238619, 25.22114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }