{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9000ea50-3e5c-4989-b328-1faed98fd9ef", "symbol": "PKP", "name": "PEAK FPO [PKP]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.091, "architecture_energy": 21.853, "architecture_maturity": 15.448, "architecture_confidence": 72.28, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.61, "rotation_up": 17.84, "upward_expansion": 16.78, "deceleration": 52.18, "rotation_down": 46.68, "downward_expansion": 59.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.0166, 0.016543, 0.016675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.01695, "distance_from_trend": -0.056047, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.026747, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401797, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.824113, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058824, "excess_performance": -0.122529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401797, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015153, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013917, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10633644, "relative_activity": 1.816811, "balance": 0.482004, "dry_up": 2.060019, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086538, "annualized_volatility": 0.422444, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.01695, "fair_value_reference": 0.026747, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.039374, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.198718, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.231438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.025641, "worst_return": -0.371429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.262821, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.326954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15, "worst_return": -0.504762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.423077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.453098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128205, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.042, "volume": 1633302, "typical_volume": 2952709.95, "trend": 0.0486, "fair_value": 0.230474, "relative_strength": -30.351512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.650839, "energy": 22.15081, "activity_lines": [ 0.017133, 0.016564, 0.016648, 0.01686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.018, "volume": 7964034, "typical_volume": 5219247.4, "trend": 0.017283, "fair_value": 0.027292, "relative_strength": -4.560868, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.256238, "energy": 26.976619, "activity_lines": [ 0.017533, 0.016855, 0.01676, 0.016902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 6431616, "typical_volume": 4877169.65, "trend": 0.017183, "fair_value": 0.027112, "relative_strength": -8.456085, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.934066, "energy": 22.20258, "activity_lines": [ 0.0174, 0.016945, 0.016776, 0.016884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.015, "volume": 23199177, "typical_volume": 5809393.7, "trend": 0.01705, "fair_value": 0.026933, "relative_strength": -20.184974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.049038, "energy": 19.477306, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.016673, 0.016607, 0.016743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 10633644, "typical_volume": 5852917.05, "trend": 0.01695, "fair_value": 0.026747, "relative_strength": -16.824113, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.090999, "energy": 21.852851, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.0166, 0.016543, 0.016675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }