{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90013774-3c26-4098-bd34-cda55918f508", "symbol": "ARGX", "name": "argenx NV ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.183, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.599, "architecture_energy": 21.197, "architecture_maturity": 38.832, "architecture_confidence": 80.088, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.3, "rotation_up": 30.3, "upward_expansion": 61.84, "deceleration": 87.13, "rotation_down": 25.6, "downward_expansion": 14.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 872.924, 882.340909, 863.070667, 838.840387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 865.04, "trend_reference": 817.368, "distance_from_trend": 0.058324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 611.688205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.414185, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.814766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066042, "excess_performance": -0.121411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058324, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.414185, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.731736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1358152, "relative_activity": 0.86077, "balance": 2.731736, "dry_up": 0.89583, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074693, "annualized_volatility": 0.361286, "from_high_reference": -0.09285, "from_low_reference": 0.369883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 817.368, "fair_value_reference": 611.688205, "structural_low": 661.85, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.06023, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.041862, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.383562, "worst_return": -0.192937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062664, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.079863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.276092, "worst_return": -0.227693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11868, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263493, "worst_return": -0.05926, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1643158, "typical_volume": 1611269.25, "trend": 814.355333, "fair_value": 606.966731, "relative_strength": 4.617485, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.938752, "energy": 44.75143, "activity_lines": [ 895.513333, 890.255091, 856.141857, 833.054043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 853.82, "volume": 1341872, "typical_volume": 1589107.75, "trend": 814.816333, "fair_value": 609.306538, "relative_strength": -3.280653, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.614174, "energy": 25.31489, "activity_lines": [ 881.236667, 885.708545, 859.437143, 835.600151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 865.04, "volume": 1358152, "typical_volume": 1577834.55, "trend": 817.368, "fair_value": 611.688205, "relative_strength": -6.814766, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.599428, "energy": 21.197409, "activity_lines": [ 872.924, 882.340909, 863.070667, 838.840387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }