{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90073bee-eea2-4336-b2ca-45382483da93", "symbol": "2705", "name": "OOTOYA Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.301, "architecture_energy": 51.707, "architecture_maturity": 95.501, "architecture_confidence": 63.234, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 45.58, "upward_expansion": 76.0, "deceleration": 71.31, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 14.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8964.666667, 8958.727273, 8564.428571, 8214.313469 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8880.0, "trend_reference": 7785.242139, "distance_from_trend": 0.14062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5787.523231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.534335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.473591, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.309735, "excess_performance": 0.066332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.534335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104736, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.309735, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37900, "relative_activity": 0.812346, "balance": 0.911838, "dry_up": 2.184117, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04851, "annualized_volatility": 0.357754, "from_high_reference": -0.129412, "from_low_reference": 0.631171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7785.242139, "fair_value_reference": 5787.523231, "structural_low": 6550.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.01, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.011224, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.266827, "worst_return": -0.06297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021096, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.297907, "worst_return": -0.071777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.153996, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038976, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.321703, "worst_return": 0.005639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.513117, "energy": 83.16192, "activity_lines": [ 9140.666667, 8904.0, 8411.095238, 8065.580007 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 8850.0, "volume": 68900, "typical_volume": 45595.0, "trend": 7740.50096, "fair_value": 5763.041905, "relative_strength": 12.459509, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.002138, "energy": 62.594798, "activity_lines": [ 9061.333333, 8936.0, 8491.095238, 8140.797402 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 8880.0, "volume": 37900, "typical_volume": 46655.0, "trend": 7785.242139, "fair_value": 5787.523231, "relative_strength": 10.473591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.30056, "energy": 51.706723, "activity_lines": [ 8964.666667, 8958.727273, 8564.428571, 8214.313469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }