{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90082ed5-3a7f-4940-afbf-8d6dc4d29018", "symbol": "TRVL", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.96, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.924, "architecture_energy": 41.728, "architecture_maturity": 28.792, "architecture_confidence": 65.879, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.25, "rotation_up": 46.84, "upward_expansion": 76.44, "deceleration": 61.01, "rotation_down": 24.57, "downward_expansion": 5.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.050333, 27.025, 26.600714, 26.307839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.455, "trend_reference": 26.238667, "distance_from_trend": 0.046357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.323514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004812, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.41306, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018361, "excess_performance": -0.152531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004812, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076412, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046017, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.127338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15590, "relative_activity": 1.058083, "balance": 4.127338, "dry_up": 0.634324, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027093, "annualized_volatility": 0.202489, "from_high_reference": -0.054743, "from_low_reference": 0.184171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.238667, "fair_value_reference": 27.323514, "structural_low": 23.184999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.010411, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028708, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.010411, "worst_return": 0.010411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09862, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020822, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 28.58, "volume": 21734, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 28.74, "volume": 16101, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 29.290001, "volume": 18621, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", 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"Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.624356, "energy": 27.663432, "activity_lines": [ 26.905667, 26.891818, 26.346571, 26.195806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.915001, "volume": 6948, "typical_volume": 16599.85, "trend": 26.290167, "fair_value": 27.322318, "relative_strength": -11.942661, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.962267, "energy": 19.559763, "activity_lines": [ 26.883, 26.920182, 26.452929, 26.232688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.455, "volume": 15590, "typical_volume": 14734.2, "trend": 26.238667, "fair_value": 27.323514, "relative_strength": -12.41306, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.924041, "energy": 41.728414, "activity_lines": [ 27.050333, 27.025, 26.600714, 26.307839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }