{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9008a78e-b85a-4484-8e38-0d0f6ce176c7", "symbol": "FLXI", "name": "Franklin FTSE India UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.759, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.166, "architecture_energy": 20.377, "architecture_maturity": 16.194, "architecture_confidence": 48.167, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.44, "rotation_up": 48.37, "upward_expansion": 43.05, "deceleration": 36.31, "rotation_down": 29.53, "downward_expansion": 17.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.570666, 41.437091, 41.210786, 41.185387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.294998, "trend_reference": 41.496, "distance_from_trend": 0.019255, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.579263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.077059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044613, "excess_performance": -0.127496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00042, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044613, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.656384, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12356, "relative_activity": 0.388821, "balance": 1.656384, "dry_up": 0.308742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022398, "annualized_volatility": 0.182103, "from_high_reference": -0.087487, "from_low_reference": 0.132396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.496, "fair_value_reference": 42.579263, "structural_low": 37.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004361, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01017, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.070427, "worst_return": -0.075127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01511, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.034251, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.08155, "worst_return": -0.13448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014403, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004101, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.103411, "worst_return": -0.097678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032861, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019426, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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33536.95, "trend": 41.658333, "fair_value": 42.487436, "relative_strength": -14.395959, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.302434, "energy": 16.517152, "activity_lines": [ 41.026667, 41.069091, 40.963762, 41.128796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.799999, "volume": 2220, "typical_volume": 32732.8, "trend": 41.5595, "fair_value": 42.531731, "relative_strength": -11.287549, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.727009, "energy": 4.556159, "activity_lines": [ 41.22, 41.220909, 41.067833, 41.137935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.294998, "volume": 12356, "typical_volume": 31778.15, "trend": 41.496, "fair_value": 42.579263, "relative_strength": -11.077059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.165803, "energy": 20.377375, "activity_lines": [ 41.570666, 41.437091, 41.210786, 41.185387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }