{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9009247f-adc4-462e-bd6d-276dfa996196", "symbol": "BKLC", "name": "BNY MELLON ETF TR US LARGE CAP CORE EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.067, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.977, "architecture_energy": 54.295, "architecture_maturity": 51.065, "architecture_confidence": 79.566, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 54.98, "upward_expansion": 80.92, "deceleration": 62.13, "rotation_down": 25.82, "downward_expansion": 7.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.143778, 47.840039, 47.346226, 46.383787 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.41, "trend_reference": 45.29606, "distance_from_trend": 0.090823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.936117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.072569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.129879, "excess_performance": 0.004254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000726, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129879, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.05425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1671461, "relative_activity": 1.124859, "balance": 3.05425, "dry_up": 1.076865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025622, "annualized_volatility": 0.144138, "from_high_reference": -0.00363, "from_low_reference": 0.236253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.29606, "fair_value_reference": 36.936117, "structural_low": 39.972945, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.01833, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": 0.000195, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.070434, "worst_return": -0.120972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.053343, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.001749, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.137924, "worst_return": -0.053513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.10661, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 8.6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.159298, "worst_return": -0.136935, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -0.008402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.846578, "energy": 47.405278, "activity_lines": [ 47.620838, 47.524446, 46.671359, 45.789398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.14, "volume": 1179602, "typical_volume": 1324188.8, "trend": 44.978738, "fair_value": 36.658065, "relative_strength": -0.093337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.00833, "energy": 45.120206, "activity_lines": [ 47.483233, 47.46517, 46.832011, 45.935892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.63, "volume": 2751966, "typical_volume": 1431393.8, "trend": 45.118887, "fair_value": 36.79118, "relative_strength": -0.145877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.237615, "energy": 42.92214, "activity_lines": [ 47.549333, 47.492335, 47.017807, 46.106941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.41, "volume": 1671461, "typical_volume": 1485929.8, "trend": 45.29606, "fair_value": 36.936117, "relative_strength": 0.072569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.977293, "energy": 54.29527, "activity_lines": [ 48.143778, 47.840039, 47.346226, 46.383787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }