{ "ticker": { "uuid": "900963eb-6017-496e-a952-099338a41e0e", "symbol": "SHLS", "name": "Shoals Technologies Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.02, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.44, "architecture_energy": 9.914, "architecture_maturity": 39.263, "architecture_confidence": 77.811, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.95, "rotation_up": 22.33, "upward_expansion": 46.57, "deceleration": 82.97, "rotation_down": 31.49, "downward_expansion": 26.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.226667, 9.526909, 9.621619, 9.178172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.93, "trend_reference": 8.871, "distance_from_trend": 0.006651, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.641571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.785461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.132167, "excess_performance": -0.319621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.067556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43685225, "relative_activity": 1.596497, "balance": 1.067556, "dry_up": 1.155985, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.219145, "annualized_volatility": 1.017518, "from_high_reference": -0.322453, "from_low_reference": 1.015801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.871, "fair_value_reference": 8.641571, "structural_low": 5.43, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097735, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.08895, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.397118, "worst_return": -0.121608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.14478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.146026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.617534, "worst_return": -0.293206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.515283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.38993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.973025, "worst_return": 0.057541, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.254335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028668, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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36.06707, "energy": 17.908407, "activity_lines": [ 9.99, 10.203455, 9.578667, 9.14871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.39, "volume": 21212434, "typical_volume": 26089803.55, "trend": 8.873667, "fair_value": 8.814006, "relative_strength": 2.437151, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.682039, "energy": 17.135362, "activity_lines": [ 9.807333, 10.026727, 9.644048, 9.182409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.74, "volume": 24284156, "typical_volume": 26107401.45, "trend": 8.862, "fair_value": 8.723109, "relative_strength": -5.629146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.93904, "energy": 11.920483, "activity_lines": [ 9.476667, 9.748909, 9.63, 9.173785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.93, "volume": 43685225, "typical_volume": 27363173.45, "trend": 8.871, "fair_value": 8.641571, "relative_strength": -8.785461, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.439817, "energy": 9.913595, "activity_lines": [ 9.226667, 9.526909, 9.621619, 9.178172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }