{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "900d2899-8a72-43f1-8486-f559d0eae3ac",
    "symbol": "LYB",
    "name": "LyondellBasell Industries NV",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 48.254,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -13.063,
    "architecture_energy": 13.581,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.941,
    "architecture_confidence": 50.841,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 51.54,
        "rotation_up": 34.28,
        "upward_expansion": 21.58,
        "deceleration": 51.67,
        "rotation_down": 24.62,
        "downward_expansion": 35.25
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        60.128,
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        62.345828,
        63.817927
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 59.59,
    "trend_reference": 63.218362,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.057394,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 67.976061,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123368,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.042594,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.105628,
    "excess_performance": -0.019997,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057394,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092905,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123368,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.151365,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.050426,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.216103,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.105628,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.923229,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 24394865,
      "relative_activity": 0.872909,
      "balance": 0.923229,
      "dry_up": 0.842646,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.08411,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.451884,
      "from_high_reference": -0.282792,
      "from_low_reference": 0.507017
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 63.218362,
      "fair_value_reference": 67.976061,
      "structural_low": 51.98,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.004398,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043911,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.163418,
        "worst_return": -0.172713,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.008027,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.095318,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.034938,
        "worst_return": -0.161059,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.097073,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.087616,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.135038,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.086679,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.303418,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.229658,
        "worst_return": -0.403017,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.062962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003318,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047589,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014008,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.088032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.20942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.004552,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.039027,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 68.350792,
        "relative_strength": -2.038009,
        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.9754,
        "energy": 60.953776,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 31601941.45,
        "trend": 62.198272,
        "fair_value": 68.220405,
        "relative_strength": 0.758127,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.815806,
        "energy": 44.217106,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 62.08,
        "volume": 24976623,
        "typical_volume": 29582207.35,
        "trend": 62.820245,
        "fair_value": 68.115281,
        "relative_strength": 2.514601,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.497172,
        "energy": 19.967591,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 59.59,
        "volume": 24394865,
        "typical_volume": 27946628.45,
        "trend": 63.218362,
        "fair_value": 67.976061,
        "relative_strength": -5.042594,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.062551,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}