{ "ticker": { "uuid": "900d684c-6fd0-4598-aaca-3ca1b51eb48f", "symbol": "SMH", "name": "VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.86, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.839, "architecture_energy": 26.34, "architecture_maturity": 74.76, "architecture_confidence": 92.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.85, "rotation_up": 19.72, "upward_expansion": 54.65, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 32.55, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.422667, 109.914546, 107.553572, 100.188861 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 108.540001, "trend_reference": 90.676334, "distance_from_trend": 0.197005, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.379087, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.112533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 32.215822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.543954, "excess_performance": 0.492719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.197005, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.230249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.112533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.322158, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.543954, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1695929, "relative_activity": 1.005509, "balance": 0.894124, "dry_up": 1.054341, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086564, "annualized_volatility": 0.382901, "from_high_reference": -0.125383, "from_low_reference": 1.310591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.676334, "fair_value_reference": 51.379087, "structural_low": 63.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.06337, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": 0.075327, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238177, "worst_return": -0.036531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.17867, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.159658, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.813232, "worst_return": -0.048315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.191667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.238039, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.399857, "worst_return": 0.065454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064912, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.124782, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.978466, "energy": 49.214382, "activity_lines": [ 112.449334, 113.304728, 104.94781, 96.684495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.699997, "volume": 1651842, "typical_volume": 1594705.9, "trend": 88.041, "fair_value": 50.391683, "relative_strength": 36.270705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.102443, "energy": 37.352268, "activity_lines": [ 109.922666, 112.524727, 106.151191, 98.050796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.940002, "volume": 1966806, "typical_volume": 1644185.85, "trend": 89.299, "fair_value": 50.859087, "relative_strength": 26.039569, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.336472, "energy": 27.209693, "activity_lines": [ 106.554667, 110.586182, 106.618381, 98.947506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.540001, "volume": 1695929, "typical_volume": 1686637.75, "trend": 90.676334, "fair_value": 51.379087, "relative_strength": 32.215822, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.839007, "energy": 26.339819, "activity_lines": [ 106.422667, 109.914546, 107.553572, 100.188861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }