{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90169564-47f8-43bd-8ed5-e7af2babf553", "symbol": "000800", "name": "FAW Jiefang Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.065, "architecture_energy": 20.076, "architecture_maturity": 89.707, "architecture_confidence": 74.148, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.39, "rotation_up": 32.88, "upward_expansion": 20.18, "deceleration": 43.78, "rotation_down": 23.43, "downward_expansion": 54.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.279333, 6.20688, 6.26245, 6.380195 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.17, "trend_reference": 6.538287, "distance_from_trend": -0.056328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.676546, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196253, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.146309, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108382, "excess_performance": -0.115781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196253, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111455, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78751338, "relative_activity": 1.112171, "balance": 0.606349, "dry_up": 1.183967, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053759, "annualized_volatility": 0.234544, "from_high_reference": -0.206941, "from_low_reference": 0.062387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.538287, "fair_value_reference": 7.676546, "structural_low": 5.807677, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.015808, "positive_rate": 0.653846, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": -0.01037, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.266904, "worst_return": -0.127841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030661, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006832, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202586, "worst_return": -0.153022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039249, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003795, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.195402, "worst_return": -0.112436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.302317, "energy": 37.150108, "activity_lines": [ 6.113796, 6.110622, 6.294669, 6.430552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.26, "volume": 88350044, "typical_volume": 70280606.8, "trend": 6.567954, "fair_value": 7.707817, "relative_strength": -8.704798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.910907, "energy": 24.053608, "activity_lines": [ 6.177207, 6.135557, 6.277056, 6.409652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.5, "volume": 85605570, "typical_volume": 70706653.5, "trend": 6.558621, "fair_value": 7.692646, "relative_strength": -3.227532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.567655, "energy": 18.121044, "activity_lines": [ 6.306348, 6.204491, 6.284491, 6.405267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.17, "volume": 78751338, "typical_volume": 70808669.0, "trend": 6.538287, "fair_value": 7.676546, "relative_strength": -12.146309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.064512, "energy": 20.075903, "activity_lines": [ 6.279333, 6.20688, 6.26245, 6.380195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }