{ "ticker": { "uuid": "901a2297-aae6-4f9e-a7dc-fab6e6cac4ad", "symbol": "002741", "name": "Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.408, "architecture_energy": 28.898, "architecture_maturity": 66.58, "architecture_confidence": 75.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.21, "rotation_up": 14.78, "upward_expansion": 43.76, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 50.88, "downward_expansion": 34.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.044, 27.569818, 27.332546, 25.74809 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.299999, "trend_reference": 24.023692, "distance_from_trend": 0.094753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.223092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.52702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.877572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.241332, "excess_performance": 0.233933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127942, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.52702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166821, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118776, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231216, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.241332, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.49544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143365521, "relative_activity": 1.143387, "balance": 1.49544, "dry_up": 1.100423, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194735, "annualized_volatility": 0.845071, "from_high_reference": -0.36596, "from_low_reference": 0.609723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.023692, "fair_value_reference": 17.223092, "structural_low": 16.338216, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.060355, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.031489, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.162851, "worst_return": -0.18471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02735, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024743, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.139958, "worst_return": -0.063441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038462, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.201738, "worst_return": -0.124753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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24.799999, "volume": 137659401, "typical_volume": 116042285.1, "trend": 23.735178, "fair_value": 17.093192, "relative_strength": 9.823319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.660813, "energy": 36.543414, "activity_lines": [ 31.014666, 31.458727, 27.906156, 25.895792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.9, "volume": 150428613, "typical_volume": 119683018.65, "trend": 23.801428, "fair_value": 17.129355, "relative_strength": -3.297304, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.828703, "energy": 23.458632, "activity_lines": [ 27.05, 29.920727, 27.612211, 25.777393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.860001, "volume": 120459826, "typical_volume": 121859682.05, "trend": 23.812767, "fair_value": 17.158533, "relative_strength": -6.369582, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.270349, "energy": 27.782113, "activity_lines": [ 24.032, 28.209818, 27.214165, 25.587624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 143365521, "typical_volume": 125386647.0, "trend": 24.023692, "fair_value": 17.223092, "relative_strength": 11.877572, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.408415, "energy": 28.898305, "activity_lines": [ 24.044, 27.569818, 27.332546, 25.74809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }