{ "ticker": { "uuid": "901a4903-91b9-4e71-aecd-c08b37ae0e69", "symbol": "SPTL", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO LONG TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.612, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.187, "architecture_energy": 71.569, "architecture_maturity": 6.192, "architecture_confidence": 80.208, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 9.0, "upward_expansion": 16.09, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 77.65, "downward_expansion": 94.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.257453, 25.524029, 25.67528, 25.797081 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.25, "trend_reference": 25.961247, "distance_from_trend": -0.027396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.485439, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.70606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035493, "excess_performance": -0.161118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009238, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.230253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26230137, "relative_activity": 0.880674, "balance": 1.230253, "dry_up": 0.875823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018314, "annualized_volatility": 0.092913, "from_high_reference": -0.068486, "from_low_reference": 0.013954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.961247, "fair_value_reference": 25.485439, "structural_low": 24.902511, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.00829, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006836, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.129125, "worst_return": -0.090084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007659, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.032553, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.110288, "worst_return": -0.162349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019486, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088585, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.03516, "worst_return": -0.160081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 25.816145, 25.862243, 25.872219, 25.962785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.266161, "volume": 20398265, "typical_volume": 30781842.05, "trend": 26.025162, "fair_value": 25.485846, "relative_strength": -10.365915, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.784105, "energy": 56.606185, "activity_lines": [ 25.589414, 25.764029, 25.810451, 25.911946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.987197, "volume": 35249305, "typical_volume": 30347182.25, "trend": 25.992429, "fair_value": 25.483854, "relative_strength": -11.953095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.773711, "energy": 74.494163, "activity_lines": [ 25.332581, 25.615201, 25.728027, 25.84498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.25, "volume": 26230137, "typical_volume": 29784170.1, "trend": 25.961247, "fair_value": 25.485439, "relative_strength": -13.70606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.187256, "energy": 71.569415, "activity_lines": [ 25.257453, 25.524029, 25.67528, 25.797081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }