{ "ticker": { "uuid": "901c28fe-de30-42c9-ae7b-27c0716a7dd1", "symbol": "VNP", "name": "5N Plus Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 81.202, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.733, "architecture_energy": 37.239, "architecture_maturity": 47.124, "architecture_confidence": 55.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.39, "rotation_up": 16.78, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 64.16, "rotation_down": 68.62, "downward_expansion": 44.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.606, 35.598182, 37.321667, 36.137463 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.459999, "trend_reference": 33.567667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.956603, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.350925, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.563588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100036, "excess_performance": -0.020385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.350925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.401906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025636, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.715649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100036, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4674400, "relative_activity": 2.108844, "balance": 0.418619, "dry_up": 1.52842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173342, "annualized_volatility": 0.565549, "from_high_reference": -0.390434, "from_low_reference": 1.148096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.567667, "fair_value_reference": 12.956603, "structural_low": 25.290001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115059, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.094402, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.356164, "worst_return": -0.20303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.221212, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.176458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.636618, "worst_return": 0.002817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.505922, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.389607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.456887, "worst_return": 0.180328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.778952, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.652812, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.01692, "worst_return": 0.540984, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.293981, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.405455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.995666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.085316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071907, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.62, "volume": 673700, "typical_volume": 1097340.0, "trend": 3.309667, "fair_value": 2.702051, "relative_strength": 26.932715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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35.571613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.330002, "volume": 2804000, "typical_volume": 2015005.0, "trend": 31.731, "fair_value": 12.223462, "relative_strength": 46.068595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.666125, "energy": 36.702829, "activity_lines": [ 41.095335, 41.250728, 39.000191, 36.173505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.82, "volume": 4363600, "typical_volume": 2089610.0, "trend": 32.229667, "fair_value": 12.41141, "relative_strength": 17.506903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.76462, "energy": 14.401122, "activity_lines": [ 38.364668, 39.745092, 38.654667, 36.243764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.5, "volume": 2068400, "typical_volume": 2042885.0, "trend": 32.736, "fair_value": 12.601795, "relative_strength": 18.111856, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.243145, "energy": 14.444416, "activity_lines": [ 36.289334, 38.450001, 38.358857, 36.325721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.580002, "volume": 2445000, "typical_volume": 2087405.0, "trend": 33.222, "fair_value": 12.786346, "relative_strength": 14.066948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.611488, "energy": 22.366248, "activity_lines": [ 34.599334, 37.106364, 37.950524, 36.315656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.459999, "volume": 4674400, "typical_volume": 2216570.0, "trend": 33.567667, "fair_value": 12.956603, "relative_strength": 2.563588, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.733384, "energy": 37.238946, "activity_lines": [ 32.606, 35.598182, 37.321667, 36.137463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }