{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9020dbc5-f0fb-4a19-abd6-ec74e40c3df2", "symbol": "REALFI", "name": "Realfiction Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.857, "architecture_energy": 18.393, "architecture_maturity": 90.33, "architecture_confidence": 78.813, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.5, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 16.79, "deceleration": 45.18, "rotation_down": 31.94, "downward_expansion": 57.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.695333, 2.632364, 2.699952, 2.840172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 3.146, "distance_from_trend": -0.202161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.19359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.775765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.991029, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.413551, "excess_performance": -0.475046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.775765, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.40991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.413551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.652912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88562, "relative_activity": 0.714809, "balance": 0.652912, "dry_up": 0.784705, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251609, "annualized_volatility": 1.103029, "from_high_reference": -0.639368, "from_low_reference": 0.507508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.146, "fair_value_reference": 11.19359, "structural_low": 1.665, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.005714, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.01609, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.332149, "worst_return": -0.259711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.06566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084573, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.214481, "worst_return": -0.436232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.242827, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.33566, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.012853, "worst_return": -0.411263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.312864, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.329342, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.672434, "worst_return": -0.616041, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086066, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.199192, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.494118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.34517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.306667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015686, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.9, "volume": 105282, "typical_volume": 84272.45, "trend": 16.995667, "fair_value": 16.404295, "relative_strength": 54.477746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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162459, "typical_volume": 172259.4, "trend": 3.400333, "fair_value": 11.612756, "relative_strength": -47.955029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.706741, "energy": 42.285322, "activity_lines": [ 2.44, 2.529818, 2.74081, 2.982796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.84, "volume": 64716, "typical_volume": 140565.6, "trend": 3.345, "fair_value": 11.514615, "relative_strength": -35.113947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.344455, "energy": 29.595323, "activity_lines": [ 2.556, 2.568727, 2.738952, 2.946645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.8, "volume": 117503, "typical_volume": 135635.85, "trend": 3.273, "fair_value": 11.413974, "relative_strength": -35.465442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.761839, "energy": 22.834117, "activity_lines": [ 2.646, 2.601636, 2.734619, 2.911484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.86, "volume": 118106, "typical_volume": 129234.15, "trend": 3.202333, "fair_value": 11.307628, "relative_strength": -33.261524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.732131, "energy": 15.485159, "activity_lines": [ 2.732667, 2.648909, 2.73481, 2.884839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 88562, "typical_volume": 123896.0, "trend": 3.146, "fair_value": 11.19359, "relative_strength": -40.991029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.857043, "energy": 18.393404, "activity_lines": [ 2.695333, 2.632364, 2.699952, 2.840172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }