{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "90266ab7-3ba5-4099-8139-455ee3860b60",
    "symbol": "UDEC",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - December",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 53.806,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.882,
    "architecture_energy": 75.804,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.303,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.022,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.3,
        "rotation_up": 63.22,
        "upward_expansion": 87.85,
        "deceleration": 52.84,
        "rotation_down": 24.63,
        "downward_expansion": 14.52
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.072307,
        41.887202,
        41.589924,
        41.140636
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 42.496,
    "trend_reference": 40.631603,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.045885,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 35.767305,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188124,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.813349,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.06533,
    "excess_performance": -0.060295,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045885,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019925,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.188124,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002675,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048133,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002468,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06533,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.852942,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 65658,
      "relative_activity": 0.420991,
      "balance": 7.852942,
      "dry_up": 0.351098,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.009518,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.062042,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.147477
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.631603,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.767305,
      "structural_low": 38.285,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": 0.006814,
        "positive_rate": 0.731707,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.731707,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005763,
        "regime_survival": 0.853659,
        "best_return": 0.028676,
        "worst_return": -0.053628,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.022942,
        "positive_rate": 0.733333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.733333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012445,
        "regime_survival": 0.733333,
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        "worst_return": -0.026422,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.040955,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03537,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.070545,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "median_return": 0.082141,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.156754,
        "worst_return": -0.051818,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008746,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.042923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051743,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
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        "return": 0.012017,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 166916.1,
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        "fair_value": 35.398947,
        "relative_strength": -3.626858,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 159481.9,
        "trend": 40.404877,
        "fair_value": 35.544335,
        "relative_strength": -3.074312,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 74.295855,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.83151
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.6856,
        "volume": 83034,
        "typical_volume": 160001.3,
        "trend": 40.468397,
        "fair_value": 35.614276,
        "relative_strength": -2.525416,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.873914,
        "energy": 70.756528,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.0295,
        "volume": 30767,
        "typical_volume": 157474.4,
        "trend": 40.54638,
        "fair_value": 35.689126,
        "relative_strength": -2.68261,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.90901,
        "energy": 72.756417,
        "activity_lines": [
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          41.441838,
          41.014854
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.496,
        "volume": 65658,
        "typical_volume": 155960.55,
        "trend": 40.631603,
        "fair_value": 35.767305,
        "relative_strength": -4.813349,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.881824,
        "energy": 75.803862,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}