{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9029e2ae-2d9e-41e7-a65e-7e3ebc505d4e", "symbol": "CVR", "name": "Cavalier Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.333, "architecture_energy": 25.258, "architecture_maturity": 92.652, "architecture_confidence": 80.445, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.96, "rotation_up": 36.96, "upward_expansion": 20.71, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 25.45, "downward_expansion": 57.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.274667, 0.265, 0.270524, 0.287409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.3135, "distance_from_trend": -0.170654, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.212497, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.175352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235294, "excess_performance": -0.299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106428, "relative_activity": 0.455036, "balance": 0.448786, "dry_up": 1.461342, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139053, "annualized_volatility": 0.682261, "from_high_reference": -0.434783, "from_low_reference": 0.238095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3135, "fair_value_reference": 0.212497, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.000816, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.098765, "worst_return": -0.325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.571429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.53278, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": 0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.647186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.611472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.818182, "worst_return": 0.47619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.31, "volume": 430617, "typical_volume": 247077.75, "trend": 0.320167, "fair_value": 0.209837, "relative_strength": -4.008083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.155568, "energy": 30.099184, "activity_lines": [ 0.263, 0.256, 0.275714, 0.296108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.29, "volume": 595919, "typical_volume": 264522.6, "trend": 0.3185, "fair_value": 0.210798, "relative_strength": -9.932364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.993087, "energy": 22.442621, "activity_lines": [ 0.275333, 0.262, 0.275238, 0.294161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 234206, "typical_volume": 256027.15, "trend": 0.316167, "fair_value": 0.211728, "relative_strength": -17.808312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.660363, "energy": 24.895495, "activity_lines": [ 0.278333, 0.264364, 0.27319, 0.291032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 106428, "typical_volume": 233889.4, "trend": 0.3135, "fair_value": 0.212497, "relative_strength": -23.175352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.333324, "energy": 25.257708, "activity_lines": [ 0.274667, 0.265, 0.270524, 0.287409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }