{ "ticker": { "uuid": "902a7b8f-1fd0-48d1-94bf-e03f34677661", "symbol": "603035", "name": "Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.928, "architecture_energy": 57.346, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.25, "rotation_up": 28.55, "upward_expansion": 10.73, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 48.55, "downward_expansion": 81.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.880667, 10.942073, 11.561901, 12.257814 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.99, "trend_reference": 13.267081, "distance_from_trend": -0.171634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.559031, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.366788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.286827, "excess_performance": -0.243623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104883, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245142, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.30271, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19963277, "relative_activity": 1.186226, "balance": 0.30271, "dry_up": 1.08627, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063701, "annualized_volatility": 0.263617, "from_high_reference": -0.42581, "from_low_reference": 0.055716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.267081, "fair_value_reference": 14.559031, "structural_low": 10.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.009708, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.007542, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.126893, "worst_return": -0.26464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072553, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007885, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.563692, "worst_return": -0.218645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072597, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.154164, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.446653, "worst_return": -0.253739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 10.86, 10.976781, 11.692818, 12.414357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.99, "volume": 19963277, "typical_volume": 16829234.5, "trend": 13.267081, "fair_value": 14.559031, "relative_strength": -23.366788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.927723, "energy": 57.346197, "activity_lines": [ 10.880667, 10.942073, 11.561901, 12.257814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }